Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 2.566217 2.736724 2.918705 3.128403 3.364668 3.624184 3.932956
2025-03-09 2.305094 2.533156 2.789574 3.102672 3.479565 3.925301 4.502941
2025-03-16 2.146636 2.407334 2.711139 3.097800 3.586833 4.199766 5.052767
2025-03-23 2.049723 2.336789 2.681335 3.135538 3.735467 4.528409 5.710459
2025-03-30 1.935659 2.232924 2.597421 3.090616 3.763976 4.692122 6.156796
2025-04-06 1.838807 2.141912 2.520232 3.043559 3.778838 4.830976 6.581468
2025-04-13 1.741283 2.043248 2.425272 2.962802 3.735254 4.874416 6.855239
2025-04-20 1.698866 2.012056 2.415157 2.994966 3.853276 5.171682 7.610819
2025-04-27 1.670502 1.996771 2.423994 3.052417 4.011854 5.551370 8.605227
2025-05-04 1.642999 1.980532 2.429577 3.104120 4.164888 5.942090 9.732766
2025-05-11 1.592295 1.930325 2.384887 3.077615 4.189700 6.111404 10.439582
2025-05-18 1.546787 1.885033 2.344459 3.054143 4.216118 6.285543 11.211109
2025-05-25 1.502767 1.840742 2.304292 3.029949 4.241666 6.467103 12.084055
2025-06-01 1.462280 1.799749 2.266884 3.007503 4.267932 6.654276 13.052971
2025-06-08 1.429866 1.768658 2.242160 3.003015 4.324521 6.911235 14.346004
2025-06-15 1.410851 1.755551 2.242899 3.038838 4.456371 7.350388 16.479715
2025-06-22 1.372024 1.712734 2.197464 2.996206 4.438669 7.454912 17.515837
2025-06-29 1.334938 1.671224 2.152347 2.951523 4.413143 7.537756 18.534119
2025-07-06 1.291562 1.619417 2.089894 2.874786 4.320213 7.448130 18.796886
2025-07-13 1.277650 1.609842 2.091148 2.905357 4.438661 7.893089 21.823549
2025-07-20 1.270278 1.609409 2.106142 2.959936 4.610152 8.512152 26.585543
2025-07-27 1.261804 1.606957 2.117713 3.009024 4.775748 9.160879 32.865020
2025-08-03 1.236796 1.579164 2.088398 2.983863 4.781820 9.359347 36.390661